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HomeMy WebLinkAbout04-29-20 Board Packet1 OTAY WATER DISTRICT SPECIAL MEETING OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS BY TELECONFERENCE 2554 SWEETWATER SPRINGS BOULEVARD SPRING VALLEY, CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY April 29, 2020 12:00 P.M. AGENDA 1.ROLL CALL 2.PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE 3.APPROVAL OF AGENDA 4.PUBLIC PARTICIPATION – OPPORTUNITY FOR MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC TOSPEAK TO THE BOARD ON ANY SUBJECT MATTER WITHIN THE BOARD'S JURISDICTION BUT NOT AN ITEM ON TODAY'S AGENDA In lieu of in-person attendance, members of the public may submit their commentson agendized and non-agendized items via email at boardsecre-tary@otaywater.gov. Public comments submitted will be read into the record at the Board Meeting andthe public may continue to listen to meetings. The information on how to listen tothe District’s live streaming can be found at this link: https://otaywater.gov/board-of-directors/agenda-and-minutes/board-agenda/ 5.DISCUSS OTAY WATER DISTRICT’S CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) RESPONSE(MARTINEZ) WORKSHOP 6.DISCUSSION OF THE FISCAL YEAR 2021 BUDGET KEY FIGURES AND AS-SUMPTIONS (KOEPPEN) RECESS TO CLOSED SESSION 7.CLOSED SESSION a)DISCUSSION RELATING TO CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) AND PUBLIC SERVICES [GOVERNMENT CODE §54957] 2 RETURN TO OPEN SESSION 8.REPORT ON ANY ACTIONS TAKEN IN CLOSED SESSION. THE BOARD MAYALSO TAKE ACTION ON ANY ITEMS POSTED IN CLOSED SESSION 9.ADJOURNMENT All items appearing on this agenda, whether or not expressly listed for action, may be deliberated and may be subject to action by the Board. The Agenda, and any attachments containing written information, are available at the District’s website at www.otaywater.gov. Written changes to any items to be considered at the open meeting, or to any attachments, will be posted on the District’s website. Copies of the Agenda and all attachments are also available through the District Secretary by contacting her at (619) 670-2280. If you have any disability which would require accommodation in order to enable you to participate in this meeting, please call the District Secretary at 670-2280 at least 24 hours prior to the meeting. Certification of Posting I certify that on April 24, 2020, I posted a copy of the foregoing agenda near the regular meeting place of the Board of Directors of Otay Water District, said time being at least 24 hours in advance of the special meeting of the Board of Directors (Government Code Section §54954.2). Executed at Spring Valley, California on April 24, 2020. /s/ Susan Cruz, District Secretary STAFF REPORT TYPE MEETING:Budget Workshop MEETING DATE: April 29, 2020 SUBMITTED BY:Kevin Koeppen, Assistant Chief of Finance PROJECT: DIV. NO.All APPROVED BY:(Chief) Joseph R. Beachem, Chief Financial Officer Jose Martinez, General Manager SUBJECT:Informational Item to Present FY 2021 Budget Key Figures and Assumptions Impacting the Upcoming Budget Proposal GENERAL MANAGER’S RECOMMENDATION: This is an informational item presenting the FY 2021 budget key figures and assumptions. PURPOSE: The purpose of this informational item is to present to the Board key figures and assumptions impacting the FY 2021 budget. BACKGROUND: Each year the District goes through a rate setting process with new challenges. The process began in January and ends with the adoption of the next fiscal year budget at the June Board meeting and implementation of rates the following January. This Budget Workshop represents the third of four presentations related to the FY 2021 budget covering the budget assumptions and inputs. The first two (2)presentations concerning the Economic Study and COVID-19 impacts were provided to the Board on April 1, 2020. A final presentation of the consolidated budget is scheduled for the June 3rd Board meeting. At the June 3rd Board meeting, staff will be presenting the consolidated FY 2021 budget and requesting that the Board approve the following items: the FY 2021 Operating and Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Budget, Interfund Transfers, actions associated with recommended rate changes, and the Salary Schedule. As impactful as COVID-19 has been since its arrival, it is still very early in its duration to gain a thorough understanding of the impacts. For this reason, staff is proposing to have a two-step budget process with an initial budget being presented on June 3rd and an updated budget presentation would be presented after the close of the first quarter. This two-step approach would allow the Board to pass a budget, which is essential to maintain effective operations AGENDA ITEM 6 2 in FY 2021, and allow more time to pass to gain a better understanding on the impacts of the pandemic. The budget is put together presenting the most realistic set of factors and assumptions based on information received from various sources including: the wholesale water suppliers, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD), the San Diego County Water Authority (CWA), and the City of San Diego (the City); vendors such as SDG&E, and an economic report prepared this year by the Xpera Group. Staff uses this information in conjunction with other economic indicators affecting taxes and revenues, such as inflation and interest rates, to prepare the budget. COVID-19 Due to the dynamic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic staff is continually evaluating impacts to the budget as the event unfolds. While the full duration remains unknown at this time, the budget is currently prepared on the assumption that the pandemic will not begin to subside until the close of the first quarter of FY 2021. The fiscal impacts related to COVID-19 are expected to adversely impact the District for the entire fiscal year and in some cases beyond FY 2021. The adverse economic impacts and durations of impacts related to COVID-19 are discussed throughout this report. Areas that are expected to be adversely impacted include: water sales volumes, property tax income, growth revenues, collections/bad debt, and penalty revenue. Due to the adversity facing the District, staff has identified savings initiatives that are being acted upon immediately. Additional savings initiatives have been identified that may be acted upon if the pandemic were to extend beyond the assumed three-month duration or the actual financial impacts exceed staff’s estimates. As new data becomes available staff is continuing to evaluate the potential impacts to sales volumes and adjust the budget accordingly during the upcoming months. Legislative Issues There are several legislative issues that are impacting the District. First and foremost is COVID-19, which consists of several unknowns regarding the state budget, funding sources, and duration of executive orders. Also, due to the Governor’s stay-at-home order, many of the water-related legislative bills and issues for the 2020 legislative session that Otay and/or CWA would normally monitor or take a position on have been delayed. More than 2,200 3 new bills were introduced by the February 21st deadline, but the extended COVID-19 related legislative recess until May 4th has altered the customary structure of the legislative session, limiting the number of allowed bills from the assembly and senate. Based on public health data and the Governor’s six-indicator framework, announced on April 14th, for modifying the stay-at-home order, it remains uncertain if the legislative recess will conclude on May 4th. Other legislative issues that are new to this year’s budget potentially include the Resiliency Bond Package, protecting fire hydrant system funding through SB 1386, and clarifying the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) process and educating the public due to the recent passage of AB 1588. Conservation and the Bay-Delta watershed also continue to be areas of focus for the State. Conservation laws requiring water agencies to establish an arbitrary residential indoor GPCD goal of 55, effective in 2023, and the SWRCB adopting an outdoor water-use standard by June 2022. As directed by the Governor and building on work already conducted, the Department of Water Resources is pursuing a new environmental review and planning process for a single tunnel solution to modernize Delta conveyance. This approach is consistent with the Governor’s recent executive order directing state agencies to develop a portfolio of statewide water actions and investments that improve water recycling, recharge depleted groundwater reserves, strengthen existing levee protections, and improve Delta water quality. In addition, increased water, sewer, reclamation plant, and laboratory regulatory fees and regulatory creep through natural attrition continue to be considerable cost drivers. CWA projects could also be cost drivers, for example, CWA is currently exploring the viability of a regional conveyance system to transport water from the Colorado River to San Diego County. Budget Strategy The culmination of the budget process is the recommendation of changes to water and sewer rates, which meet the following primary budget objectives: o Recommend rates that are compliant with the requirements of Proposition 218, o Maintain minimum reserve levels for the next three (3) years, and bring reserve levels back to target over the last three (3) years of the six-year rate model based on the District’s Reserve Policy, 4 o Result in debt coverage levels being above the target level of 150% excluding growth revenues by FY 2026 and maintain a debt covenant requirement of 125% including growth revenue for all six years, o Support the Strategic Plan initiatives. When compared to prior years objectives, the above list includes some proposed modifications to deal with the challenges our communities are facing at this time. The modifications being proposed provide some short-term rate relief to the District’s customers while allowing more time for the ultimate impact of this event to unfold. o Allow reserves to decline to minimum levels. Historically the objective has been to maintain targeted reserve levels, which are higher than the minimum. Minimum reserve levels, on average, are approximately $8.0 million below target levels. Staff is proposing utilizing reserves to fund a greater level of CIP projects, reducing overall reserve levels below target, but above minimum levels for a period of time. In future years, the District would utilize a combination of savings initiatives, rates, and debt to bring reserves back to target levels by FY 2026, which is the final year of the six-year rate model. o Allow debt coverage levels, excluding growth, to fall below the 150% target level in the short-term and return to the 150% target level by FY 2026. Water and sewer have a 125% and 115% respective debt service coverage covenants, including growth, that are fixed and may not be modified; therefore, the District must budget to maintain these coverage ratios, including growth. As part of the analysis staff evaluates the ability to smooth the financial impacts on customers over a period of time. This might result in rate increases being shifted back or forward by a year to avoid a spike in rate increases. In recent years sewer rates have experienced some instability due to significant shifts in winter water usage being offset by significant changes in rates. The combination of shifting usage and rates results in total monthly bills remaining consistent; however, it is important to alleviate these rate swings. Staff is proposing a modification to the sewer rate structure for residential and multi- residential customers. The change staff will be recommending is to shift from a one-year winter average to a three-year winter average. Doing so reduces the rate impact of changes in usage patterns which will reduce sewer rate volatility, while not having a significant 5 impact on customer fees compared to current fees. Staff has completed a cost of service study needed to implement this change. The study was presented at the April Finance Committee and is scheduled to be presented at the May Board meeting. Proposition 218 The State of California has well-established legal constraints regarding utility rate setting, of which California Constitution Article XIII D, Section 6 (commonly referred to as “Proposition 218”), is at the forefront. Proposition 218 requires that water and sewer utilities establish cost-based rates for the services provided. To comply with this requirement, the District performs periodic cost of service studies. A water cost of service study was completed and presented to the Board on April 17, 2017. The last sewer cost of service study was completed and presented to the Board on March 7, 2018. Subsequent to the completion of the cost of service studies, Proposition 218 hearings were held on October 4, 2017 for water and October 3, 2018 for sewer. At the conclusion of the 218 hearings the Board approved the terms of the 218 Notices, which allowed for rate increases to pass-through 100% of cost increases from the District suppliers and up to 10% rate increases for internal costs for a period up to five (5) years. The five-year effective period for water expires in FY 2022. A water cost of service study is scheduled to be performed in FY 2022 and will affect the January 1, 2023 rates. The five-year period for sewer expires in FY 2023. However, the implementation of a new sewer rate structure will require a 218 hearing in FY 2021, and if passed will establish a new five-year period expiring in FY 2025. Staff will evaluate the cost benefit of bringing the water and sewer cost of service studies into alignment in 2022. Strategic Planning In addition to the budget and rate setting process, the District’s focus on strategic planning has played a positive role in the financial strength of the District. By managing staffing, automating processes, and implementing Best Management Practices, the District has become more efficient and cost effective. The Strategic Plan is foundational to the budget process as it drives many of the programs of the District which are funded through the budget process. 6 FY 2020 Challenges COVID-19 The unknown duration and economic impact of COVID-19 is a significant challenge to the budget. It is currently impacting the District’s finances to a minor degree, but its impact is expected to increase as the full scope of the pandemic evolves. At this time staff is assuming the pandemic will continue into the first quarter of FY 2021 with adverse financial impacts continuing to a degree for the full fiscal year. Certain categories are anticipated to be adversely impacted in future years as well. Adverse impacts extending beyond the current fiscal year were based on a sudden recession recovering over multiple years. Categories which are anticipated to be impacted by COVID-19 are projected for water sales, property taxes, bad debt, capacity fees, CIP, and pension costs. CIP Inflationary Pressures Due to market conditions the costs of CIP projects are increasing significantly compared to prior year expectations. For projects continuing from the FY 2019 budget to the FY 2020 budget, the respective six-year CIP budgets have increased by $29.6 million, with individual projects increasing up to 30% or more. Further discussion regarding these increases is included in the CIP section of this staff report. Due to the ongoing pandemic, Engineering has reviewed the CIP projects, and has deferred projects that may be deferred without placing undo risk on the District. In addition, projects that may qualify for stimulus funds have been identified and planned to meet potential timelines and deliverables provided by stimulus programs. Water Costs The District is estimating that the overall water rate charged by CWA will increase 9.9% from $1,761 per acre-foot to $1,937 per acre- foot. The increase is being driven by an 8.8% increase in CWA’s variable rate and an increase in the fixed fees. Overall fixed fees are increasing in dollar amount and price per acre-foot due to volume declines. On a volume consistent basis, the overall water rate is increasing 7.9%. For FY 2021, staff is projecting CWA’s melded variable potable rate will increase 8.8% from $1,337 per acre-foot in FY 2020 to $1,454 per acre-foot in FY 2021 resulting in an annualized increase in purchase costs of $2.9 million. The increase in this variable rate 7 charge is driven by increases in MWD rates charged to CWA, and a 15% shortfall in CWA sales volumes to member agencies. MWD is increasing their rates and charges to CWA putting pressure on CWA to increase rates by an estimated 5%. When melded with potential increases in CWA’s treatment and transportation rates, District staff is projecting CWA’s projected melded variable rate will increase 8.8%. MWD is also increasing their Readiness-to-Serve and Capacity Reservation fixed fees by 5.9% and 11.6%, respectively. These fees are passed through directly to CWA member agencies and will increase the District’s fixed fees by $116,000 annually. Overall, CWA sales volumes to member agencies are falling 15% under the budgeted volumes. This shortfall is putting significant pressure on CWA rates as well. When combined with MWD increases, District staff estimates the unadjusted rate increase would be well over 10%. CWA is currently evaluating strategic measures to alleviate or manage this rate pressure including savings initiatives, deferrals, and utilization of their rate stabilization fund. CWA is planning to present rate proposals to their Board on May 28th. If strategic alternatives are not implemented, the 8.8% melded rate increase projected by District staff would increase proportionately. For the six-year rate model, staff is projecting CWA annual average rate increases of 8.3% in future years; however, this may be modified upward if CWA is unable to mitigate the impacts of MWD increases and shortfalls in sales volumes. CWA also provides a projection of expected high and low future rates through 2023. Over the six-year period the District’s projected annual increase of 8.3% results in a projected cost in the 98th percentile of CWA’s forecast by 2023 and remains at the 98th percentile for the duration of the forecast. As part of the budget process any savings associated with future year’s actual costs would result in a budget savings and benefit the rates proposed in that year. 8 The recycled water rate from the City for FY 2019 is expected to remain at $1.73/HCF in FY 2021. A $150 thousand increase is anticipated in recycled purchase cost due to the take-or-pay contractual minimum volume increasing. In addition, it is estimated that the CWA and the Metropolitan Water Authority credits of $1.2 million per year will expire at the end of FY 2023, which will also impact the projected rate increases over the next six (6) years. Insurance Costs Overall SDRMA insurance costs are expected to increase $510 thousand, with general/liability insurance increasing $560 thousand and workers compensation decreasing slightly. Staff is in the process of evaluating insurance alternatives to identify potential opportunities for savings. Staff will be modifying the final budget to incorporate savings from any alternative deemed feasible and cost beneficial. The increase in general/liability insurance is primarily due to re- insurer rate increases and the elimination of volume discounts. The global, national, and state re-insurers have incurred recent catastrophic losses including widespread wildfires, storms, public safety claims, and other liability events. As indicated by SDRMA, the re-insurers that provide coverage for these large losses, for example the California State Association of Counties Excess Insurance Authority CSAC-EIA, are passing along rate increases to SDRMA that are resulting in member rates going up between 30% and 90%. The District’s contribution rates are estimated to be increasing by $247,000. Additionally, SDRMA has lost a substantial portion of volume discounts with the re-insurers which translates into a $313,000 loss of discounts for the District. The combination of the rate increase of $247,000 and the loss of the volume discount of $313,000 is $560,000. Another factor impacting the increase is the District’s loss history. Based on the District’s recent claim history, between 2013 and 2020 the District paid $6 million in premiums and deductibles, while SDRMA has paid out $5.7 million in liability claims against the District. The claims were largely 3rd party damages related to main breaks. Staff is working with SDRMA to evaluate options to reduce the premium including reducing limits and increasing deductibles. Staff is also pursuing insurance quotes from other insurance pools and is anticipating positive changes that will be brought to the Board in June. 9 Sewer Challenges The primary challenges for sewer are rate stability, discussed previously in this staff report, and the City of San Diego not providing a long-term forecast from the City of San Diego’s Pure Water Program on the District. From FY 2019 to FY 2020 the District’s Metro JPA allocation from the City increased substantially and was projected to continue to increase substantially over the six-year period. Due to delays in the pure water project, the anticipated increases from the City have been deferred, which is reducing pressure on rates for FY 2021. In addition, the FY 2021 allocation reflects the District’s reduced capacity under the terms of the new Metro agreement. This deferral is lengthening the time for sewer to smooth the impact of Pure Water Program into rates. Staff is assuming the pure water project spending will return to planned amounts in FY 2022. The ultimate cost of the City of San Diego’s Pure Water Program remains the most significant cost increase facing the sewer customers over the next six (6) years, and beyond. There is still significant ambiguity on how these costs will affect our customers. As mentioned in an April 3, 2019 Engineering Staff Report, the District’s sewer customer’s share of Pure Water Phase I is estimated at $2.6 million and Phase II is estimated at $5.7 million. The combined effect on rates totaling 29% will need to be phased into rates over the next 15 years. The modification in capacity from 1.287 MGD to 0.38 MGD under the new Metro agreement has reduced the District’s ultimate pure water burden, but as the agreement is not yet fully executed there is still some risk regarding the ultimate outcome to the District. The City has applied for grant funding and low-cost State Revolving Fund (SRF) financing. If obtained these may be a direct reduction in the overall Pure Water cost or reduce the District’s pay-go funding requirement, smoothing out the cashflow impact to the District’s customers. Failure to obtain the projected SRF loan or grant funding could impact the projected Metro JPA fees. For the CIP component of Pure Water, staff is assuming a $50 thousand increase in the District’s Metro fees based on the City communicating that CIP spending will increase $5.0 million per year. The District currently represents approximately 1.0% of the Metro capacity, which equates to the $50 thousand annual increase. In addition to the capital cost funding requirements staff has assumed, based on input from the City, 5.0% annual increases in operating costs for FY 2021 to FY 2024 and a one-time 10.0% increase in FY 10 2025 as Phase I becomes operational and Phase II advances. Based on these assumptions, total annual Metro fees are expected to increase from $631 thousand in FY 2021 to $844 thousand by 2026. CalPERS and OPEB Update In 2018, the District made a $31.8 million advance payment to CalPERS, which was estimated to save the District $16.4 million over 25 years. Other efforts to reduce pension costs have included: staff reductions, reducing the benefit through PEPRA, advanced funding of the District’s pension and OPEB obligations, and plans to shift advanced OPEB funding to the pension. Based on the revised estimated UAL from CalPERS and the finalized debt terms, the District is estimating a savings of approximately $16.0 million. As of June 30, 2019, the OPEB plan was fully funded and the plan will reimburse the District for retiree medical costs in FY 2020. This will be the first reimbursement of retiree medical costs since the plan was expanded in 2010. Staff is proposing that the estimated annual $1.2 million reimbursement be utilized to further reduce the District’s unfunded pension costs, which staff estimates will save an additional $5.0 million over the next 12 years. The pension and OPEB liabilities carry an interest cost of 7.0%, which is the District’s highest interest cost. By focusing on reducing and eliminating the unfunded pension liability the District is reducing the highest interest cost liability, which represents a savings to the District. Major Assumptions Potable Sales Volumes Through March 31, 2020, actual potable water sales were 8.7 million units, which was 1.3% above budget of 8.6 million units. Rainfall for the fiscal year has been average; however, rainfall in March and April is expected to increase rainfall levels above the annual average resulting in unit sales dropping compared to budget. Historically during March and April, sales volumes increase from winter levels. Due to the recent rainfall, staff is anticipating sales volumes will not increase and total water volumes for the year will finish 1.0% below budget. For the FY 2021 budget staff is planning to use the projected 2020 volume as the base and reduce it by 12% to reflect reduced volume due to the economic impacts of COVID-19. Due to FY 2020 rainfall being substantially close to average rainfall, the FY 2020 volumes provide a reasonable base for projecting FY 2021 volume. 11 The 12% estimated decline for COVID-19 was based on the decline in volumes during the last recession. From 2007 to 2010 water sales volumes declined 24% over a period of three (3) years. Due to the accelerated levels of unemployment in this circumstance, staff is assuming an immediate significant drop in volume, with a three-year recovery. The reduction in the projected drop in sales volumes from the 24% experienced during the last recession to 12% is based on demand hardening. Current levels remain well below the peak levels of 2007. Between 2007 and 2010 sales volumes declined from 16.1 million units to 12.4 million units. The FY 2020 projected volume of 11.6 million units indicates current levels have recovered to approximately 75% of the peak 16.1 million units. This permanent reduction is attributed to conservation efforts reducing discretionary water usage. As a result, staff is assuming the ability to reduce water usage at the levels experienced during the last recession have been reduced. The methodology used to arrive at 12% is based on the mid-point of a simple minimum and simple peak percentage declines. A simple minimum decline of 6% is based on a three-month impact equating to a quarter of the year COVID-19 impact or 25% of the decline during the last recession. The simple peak is based on current sales volume levels being 75% of peak volumes from the last recession, which equals 18%. The midpoint between the 6% minimum and 18% peak, is 12%. Following are the projected unit sales assumptions proposed for the FY 2021 six-year rate model. Staff is assuming the volume reductions related to COVID-19 will recover and return to FY 2020 levels by FY 2026. A faster recovery would benefit future years, while a slower recovery would adversely impact future years. The below analysis shows historic and projected volumes compared to last year’s projections and ranges. The 12% decline in FY 2021 is projected to recover over a three-year period. The long-term Projected Budget Budget FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2020 3-Year 5-Year FY 2021 13,189 13,720 12,744 10,475 11,250 12,227 11,576 11,622 11,739 11,808 11,430 10,229 Actual Averages Historical Unit Sales (in 000's HCF) FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 6-year Ave Growth % 10,229 10,945 11,331 11,699 11,728 11,758 11,282 0.25% Projected Unit Sales (in 000's HCF) 6-Year Rate Model Projection 12 projection is projected to be 1% less than prior year’s long-term projection based on a projected 1% shortfall in FY 2020. The dashed line below represents FY 2020 budget projections. Recycled Sales Volumes Through March 31, 2020, actual recycled water sales were 1.1 million units, which was 3% below budget. Due to recent rainfall exceeding historical averages, staff is projecting FY 2020 actual recycled water volumes will be 5% below budget. Due to COVID-19 staff is budgeting FY 2021 units will decrease 15% from FY 2020 actual levels. The decline was based on declines experienced during the last recession. At that time volumes declined approximately 25% over a period of three (3) years, which is consistent with potable water declines during that period. Also, like potable water sales, current recycled volumes remain 25% below peak levels prior to the last recession. When compared to the anticipated potable decline, recycled volumes are budgeted to have a larger decline due to recycled water usage being more discretionary than potable. Potable Sales Projection Analysis Otay Water District FY 2021 Budget 11,576 11,622 10.,229 10,945 11,331 11,699 11,728 11,758 12,227 12,376 11,250 11,399 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 FY 2021 Base Volumes Cumulative Growth Ceiling Floor FY 2020 Projected Volumes Projected Budget Budget FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2020 3-Year 5-Year FY 2021 1,294 1,945 1,734 1,492 1,530 1,740 1,463 1,513 1,593 1,572 1,548 1,286 Actual Averages Historical Unit Sales (in 000's HCF) 13 Below are the projected unit sales assumptions used in the FY 2021 six-year rate model. To evaluate the sensitivity of the projected volumes staff prepared the table below comparing the FY 2021 projections to volumes projected in the FY 2020 budget. The table below shows volumes declining 12% from 2020 actuals and remaining at levels below the floor for a period of three (3) years. The long-term projection shows sales volumes in 2026 declining 1% compared to last year’s projection. Growth Revenues The District uses estimates obtained from an economist to develop the growth revenue projections. Due to the pandemic, original estimates have been reduced based on the assumption that the pandemic will delay projects for a period of time. The below table compares the original capacity fee revenue projections to the revised projections. FY 2021 Budget Otay Water District Recycled Sales Volume Analysis 1,463 1,513 1,283 1,386 1,441 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,811 1,836 1,463 1,463 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Based Volume Cumulative Growth Ceiling Floor FY 2020 Projection FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Total 2021 Unadjusted Economic Report 3,489,900$ 3,907,000$ 6,998,700$ 9,156,100$ 9,443,800$ 8,011,500$ 41,007,000$ 2021 Adjusted Economic Report 2,554,100$ 3,132,200$ 6,279,700$ 9,156,100$ 9,443,800$ 8,011,500$ 38,577,400$ Net Cashflow Impact (935,800)$ (774,800)$ (719,000)$ -$ -$ -$ (2,429,600)$ 14 Property Tax Revenues The District has received communication from the County Tax Assessor that property tax receipts may be impacted by the pandemic, but it is not clear regarding the timing or amount of the impact. During the last recession property tax revenues declined 10% over a three- year period. For the FY 2021 budget staff has incorporated a 10% reduction in FY 2021, based on the last recession, and returning to current levels over a two-year period. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Budget As a component of the annual budget development process, the Engineering staff update the CIP budget using the following process: •CIP projects are selected based on the Water Facilities Master Plan (WFMP), the Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), Sub Area Master Plans (SAMP), Integrated Water Resources Plan (IRP), Wastewater Management Plan (WWMP),the Cathodic Protection Plan, the District’s Strategic Plan, and other focused or specific planning documents and reports to manage growth, maintenance, and the life extension of assets. •The CIP goes through an iterative process to meet the criteria of growth, service levels, supply targets, and system reliability. •CIP target expenditures for the next six (6) years are refined and used in the rate model. The following general criteria are used to determine the reasonableness of a project before it is considered for inclusion within the CIP budget: •Safety and existing facility conditions •Operating system conditions and energy improvements •Water and sewer system deficiencies •Regulatory and permitting requirements •Developer driven requirements •Economic outlook •Growth projections FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Total FY 2020 Property Tax Projection 3,901,300$ 3,901,300$ 3,901,300$ 3,901,300$ 3,901,300$ 3,901,300$ COVID Multiplier 10%5%0%0%0%0% Net Cashflow Impact (390,130)$ (195,065)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ (585,195)$ 15 •Water supply diversification goals •Board and management directives This year, the total six-year CIP budget of $92.3 million is increasing by $4.0 million versus last year. The total water CIP budget for the six-year period is $85.4 million, which is a $5.5 million increase compared to FY 2020, while the sewer CIP of $6.9 million is decreasing $1.5 million compared to FY 2020. Staff is projecting the water fund will have adequate reserves to fund the water projects, while the sewer fund will need to borrow funds in FY 2021. The following schedule contains a roll-forward of the six- year CIP budget followed by explanations for the roll-forward amounts. The $5.8 million for 21 new CIP projects consists mainly of the following: o $1.5 million for improvement of the disinfection equipment and contact basin at the District’s Ralph W. Chapman Water Reclamation Facility (RWCWRF). o $875 thousand for repairs and replacement of the District’s roofing systems. A roofing contractor, retained by the District, performed a condition assessment of the roofs and provided a series of reports and budgets for the repairs, maintenance, and replacement costs for each roofing system. o $600 thousand total in four (4) CIP budgets for improvement of the storm water collection system at the entrance and reconfiguration and improvement of the storm water retention pond at the RWCWRF. The funding source is split between recycled and sewer. o $500 thousand for the immediate replacement of the air/vacs on the RWCWRF 14-inch force main. This CIP budget includes a re- assessment of the condition of this force main scheduled for FY 2026. The last assessment was completed in December 2016. FY20 6-Year CIP $88.3 New Projects $5.8 Completed Projects $(0.5) Deferred Projects $(1.6) Ongoing Project Changes Budget Adjustments $29.6 Budget expenditures for ongoing projects in-progress $ (29.3) FY21 6-Year CIP $ 92.3 16 o $450 thousand for the repair and repaving of the access road around the 458-1 and 458-2 Reservoirs. The $500 thousand for 16 CIP projects represents projects completed and placed in service. The completed projects include: o $160 thousand for the repair of the Recycled Pressure Reducing Station on Otay Lakes Road that was completed under budget. o $247 thousand for the upgrade of the Camino Elevado Drive Interconnection with Sweetwater Authority that was found to have a very small localized benefit, even if connected to a District portable trailer pump. The $1.6 million represents the deferral of projects included in the FY 2020 budget. The projects were deferred after the Board rejected bids that were higher than budgeted and are planned to be re-bid during FY 2021. Below is a listing of the applicable projects. o $374 thousand for RWCWRF Filtered Water Storage Tank Improvements. o $778 thousand for the Reservoir Recoating and Upgrades at the 850-1 Reservoir. o $484 thousand related to the Pressure Reducing Station Replacements between the 458 and 340 Pressure Zones at 1571 Melrose Avenue and 1505 Oleander Avenue in Chula Vista. The $29.6 million increase for budget adjustments is related to changing market conditions, as noted in staff reports presented to the Board this fiscal year. On several recent staff reports, staff has noted that in the current bidding climate, the number of bidding contractors has been reduced. During calendar year 2017, the District’s average number of bidders was 5.7 across seven (7) projects advertised for construction. The average number of bidders across ten (10) projects advertised for construction during calendar year 2018 was reduced to 2.6. During FY 2020, the District’s average number of bidders across six (6) projects advertised for construction remained unchanged at 2.6. When the number of construction projects available for bid grows regionally, the contractors can be selective on the projects they choose to bid. The overall number of projects under construction within the District boundary is very high, including Village 8 West, Village 3, Village 2, Millenia, Otay Crossings, and the SR-11 freeway extension to the border. Other local agencies are reporting increases to their construction costs as well. 17 In total, there were 46 projects with budget increases totaling $29.6 million offset by nine (9) projects that decreased a total of $3.2 million including: o $5.7 million (219%) increase for San Diego Metro Wastewater Capital Improvements for San Diego’s Pure Water Program. o $3.0 million (23%) increase for 711-2 Reservoir Replacement and Expansion (P2578) as a result of bids the District received for the Temporary Lower Otay Pump Station Redundancy project. o $2.3 million (177%) increase for the Quarry Road Bridge Replacement and Utility Relocation project (P2553) as a result of recent bids Caltrans received on the SR-11 pipeline replacement project and the recent bids the District received for pipeline replacement projects on Coronado Avenue. o $1.7 million budget increase for the Valve Replacement Program -Phase 1 as the number of valves needing repairs and replacement with this phase was increased and the scope was better defined. o $1.45 million (116%) increase for the 870-1 Cover/Liner Replacement project (P2563) and $600 thousand (33%) increase for the 944-1 Reservoir Cover/Liner Replacement project (R2121) as a result of recent bids the District received for the 711-3 Reservoir project. o $1.3 million (163%) increase for the 8-inch Pipeline Replacement project in the 1004 Pressure Zone (Phase II) on Eucalyptus Street, Coronado Avenue, Date Street, and La Mesa Avenue. The budget was updated to reflect recent bids for Phase I of this project. o $1.25 million (28%) increase for the 1655-1 Reservoir project (P2040) as a result of design refinements of the access road to the future Reservoir and results of a contractor’s preliminary quote on the project and from recent construction bids the District has received. o $1.0 million (122%) increase for the eight-inch pipeline replacement project in the 850 Pressure Zone on Coronado Avenue, Chestnut Street, and Apple Street (P2608) as a result of recent construction bids the District has received. o $900 thousand (28%) increase in the 12-inch Pipeline Replacement project in the 978 Pressure Zone on Pence Drive and Vista Sierra Drive (P2616) as a result of recent bids the District received for pipeline replacement projects on Dictionary Hill. o $750 thousand (150%) increase in the 12-inch pipeline replacement in the 711 Pressure Zone on Paso de Luz at Telegraph Canyon Road (P2612) as a result of recent bids the District received for the Dictionary Hill Pipeline Replacement study. 18 o $700 thousand (39%) increase for the Cottonwood Sewer Pump Station Renovation and a $700 thousand (70%) increase for the Steele Canyon Pump Station Replacement as a result of recent bids the District received for the Temporary Lower Otay Pump Station project. The $29.3 million represents the net change in the six-year forecast due to FY 2020 expenditures rolling off the six-year budget and FY 2026 budget being added to the six-year plan. The FY 2020 actual CIP spending rolling off for the FY 2021 budget is primarily comprised of the following items, which were included in the FY 2020 budget: o $4.7 million for the 870-2 Pump Station Replacement (P2083). o $1.5 million for the Campo Road Sewer Main Replacement (S2024). o $1.1 million for the 870-1 Reservoir Cover/Liner Replacement (P2563). o $1.7 million for Temporary Lower Otay Pump Station Redundancy (P2619). o $1.3 million for the current AMR Change-Out Program (P2604). The budgeted amounts for FY 2020 ongoing projects continuing into FY 2026 primarily consist of the following: o $2.1 million for the 803-4 Reservoir coating and upgrades (P2673). o $1.25 million for the 1485-2 Reservoir coating and upgrades (P2631). Financing Plan The District uses a comprehensive approach to financing. The Debt Policy provides guidance for debt issuance and refinancing. The Reserve Policy provides guidance on both fund transfers and reserve balances. With these policies, a six-year financing plan is formulated that identifies the timing and amounts of debt issuances, the level of rate increases, debt coverage ratios, reserve balances, and necessary transfers. Water Financing Plan For Water, the Board has requested staff examine three (3) scenarios: 1.No Rate Increase 2.Half Rate Increase 3.Full Rate Increase 19 For the first two options, reserves will decline below target levels for a period of time. To maintain reserves above minimum levels and return them to target by year six (6), staff is utilizing a combination of rate increases and debt in future years. Sewer Financing Plan For Sewer, staff is examining similar scenarios being examined for water; however, it is important to note that sewer is also proposing rates based on the results of a recent cost of service study (COSS) and the structure for sewer billing is different than water. Sewer bills are different from water in that they are fixed bills in the calendar year based on past water use. For sewer, staff is examining three (3) scenarios: 1.No Rate Increase with COSS Implemented 2.Half Rate Increase with COSS Implemented 3.Full Rate Increase with COSS Implemented For the first two options, reserves will decline below target levels for a period of time. To maintain reserves above minimum levels and return them to target by year six (6), staff is utilizing a combination of rate increases and debt in future years. Open Items Following is a list of items that are in process and will be presented at the final Budget Workshop on June 5th: o Overall budget summary o Rates and rate increases o Debt service coverage o Sewer annual and winter average updates o CWA Rates and Fixed Charges o Labor and benefits o Materials and maintenance expense o Administrative and legal expense o Salary Schedule o Rate comparison o Budget approval FISCAL IMPACT: Joseph R. Beachem, Chief Financial Officer This is an informational item. Each one of the items discussed above will impact the proposed rate increases over the next six-year period. Recommended changes to rates will be based on competing objectives, with the District maintaining reserves at minimum to 20 target levels, meeting its debt coverage covenants, and being sensitive to the customer’s challenges during this pandemic. To the degree that these targets and covenants are met, the financial impact of the items discussed in this staff report will be phased in over multiple years. For both water and sewer, staff is estimating that debt service coverages and the reserve requirements will be above targeted levels by the end of the six-year period. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: The District ensures its continued financial health through long- term financial planning and debt planning. LEGAL IMPACT: None. Attachments: A)Presentation – FY 2021 Budget Workshop #1 OTAY WATER DISTRICTFY 2021 BUDGETWORKSHOP #1 APRIL 29, 2020 1 Attachment A WORKSHOP AGENDA 2 ➢Introduction and Objectives (Joe Beachem) ➢Political Initiatives, Challenges and Strengths (Jose Martinez) ➢Strategic Plan Initiatives (Adolfo Segura) ➢Capital Improvement Budget (Dan Martin) ➢Key Assumptions (Kevin Koeppen) ➢Financing Plan (Kevin Koeppen) ➢Conclusion (Kevin Koeppen) BUDGET PROCESS –COVID-19 IMPACT 3 Six-Year Rate Model Year-end Balances Operating Budget Input Six-Year CIP Budget Input MWD/CWA & City Sewer Rates Strategic Plan Assumptions Interest Rates Inflation Growth Sales Targets Debt Coverage Reserve Levels Operating Budget CIP Budget Water & Sewer Rates BUDGET PROCESS –COVID-19 IMPACT 4 ➢Two-Step Budget Process ➢Budget Reassessment ▪Multiple rate evaluations ▪Sales monitoring ▪Collections monitoring ➢Savings Initiatives ▪Two-Step Savings Approach BUDGET OBJECTIVES 5 ➢Appropriate response to COVID challenges ➢Support Strategic Plan objectives ➢Support essential operations of the District ➢Reserves at or above minimum and return to target in the 6th year ➢Debt coverage target, excluding growth, of 150% for both water & sewer in the 6th year ➢Fund the six-year CIP budget ➢Establish rates that are compliant with Proposition 218 PROPOSITION 218 6 ➢Water ▪Water Cost of Service Study Performed -2017 ▪Prop 218 Hearing -October 4, 2017 ➢Sewer ▪Sewer Cost of Service Study Performed -2020 ▪Prop 218 Hearing –Planned for October 2020 ➢Board Approved Terms: ▪5-years (Water to 2022 and Sewer to 2025) ▪100% pass-through of supplier-related costs ▪Up to 10% rate increases for internal costs 7 COVID-19 IMPACTS ➢Six-Year Rate Model Period ▪$8.8 million adverse impact ▪$8.9 million savings plan ➢FY 2021 Only ▪$4.6 million adverse impact ▪$5.3 million saving plan RATE STRATEGY 8 ➢Strategic Plan objectives ➢Smoothing impacts ➢Monthly bill impact ➢Reserve levels ➢Rate ranking POLITICAL INITIATIVES, CHALLENGES & STRENGTHS (JOSE MARTINEZ) 9 POLITICAL INITIATIVES ➢COVID-19 ▪Stimulus bond or funding ▪Executive Order –shutoffs ▪Legislative bills & issues on hold or delayed ▪State budget –baseline budget (June 15, 2020) ➢Resiliency Bond Package ➢Conservation Mandates (SB 606, SB 1668) ▪Legislation with arbitrary residential indoor GPCD goal of 55 vs. Otay at 57 (March 2020) & 147 (July 2019) ▪Outdoor standard to be adopted by State Board by June 2022 ➢SB 1386 (Moorlach) –Protecting Fire Hydrant System Funding ➢AB 1588 –State Water Board Process and Education ➢Water Resilience Portfolio and Environmental Review for One-Tunnel Approach (Delta Conveyance) ➢Regulatory Fee Increases Across All Agencies ➢Regulatory Agencies Modified Interpretation of Regulations (regulatory creep) ➢Water Authority projects 10 CHALLENGES 11 ➢COVID-19 ▪Reduced water sales and cap fee revenues ▪Increased bad debt ▪Reduced property tax revenues ▪Reduced penalty revenue ➢CIP Inflation ➢Water Costs ➢Insurance Costs ➢Sewer –City of San Diego Pure Water ➢Sewer –Stabilizing Rates STRENGTHS 12 ➢Strategic Planning Process ➢CWA diversification of regional supply (drought-proofing San Diego) ➢Fully-funded OPEB ➢Efficiency Gains (Since 2007) ▪23% headcount reduction ▪36% increase in customers per FTE ➢Bond Rating ▪S&P ‘AA’ rating ➢Sound Financial Management ▪Reserve, debt and investment policies COVID-19 EMERGENCY RESPONSE INITIATIVES 13 ➢Reducted Capital Improvement Projects ➢Identify actionable savings initiatives ▪Strategic hiring freeze ▪Freezing the support of the CWA Intern Program ▪Reduction in travel and training ▪Reduced professional services ▪Fastrack sourcing alternative insurance provider ➢Phased approach to budget and will be coming back in the fall with an update to the board BOARD’S PROACTIVE APPROACH TO FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL STABILITY 14 ➢Financial strength through establishing debt coverage targets and Reserve Policy ➢Investment in disaster preparation from policies to disaster kits ➢Invested in software, equipment and other infrastructure to allow remote operations ➢Reduced equipment and vehicles ➢Converted variable bonds to fixed ➢Limited exposure to CalPERS changes in future discount rates by making advanced payment STRATEGIC PLAN FY2019 –FY2022 (ADOLFO SEGURA) 15 OVERVIEW 16 The District’s Strategic Plan (SP) is designed to set priorities, resource allocation, strengthen operations, improve customer service, performance execution, and ensure that the agency is working toward common goals. The District’s four-year SP, FY19 – FY22, is designed to address new initiatives, financial sustainability, continued process improvement, and track essential day-to-day performance metrics. Key areas of focus are: ➢Employee development programs ➢Asset Management (AM) and Capital Improvement Project (CIP) Programs ➢Customer engagement ➢Cybersecurity ➢Long-term business planning of the sewer and recycled water system ➢Pension and OPEB liability financing ➢Management of new water regulations SP: 19 strategies, 52 objectives, and 42 KPI’s EmployeesWe see each individual as unique and important. We value diversity and open communication to promote fairness, dignity, and respect. IntegrityWe commit ourselves to doing the right thing. Ethical behavior trust-worthiness, and accountability are the District’s foundation. CustomersWe take pride that our commitment to customer-centered service is our highest priority. ExcellenceWe strive to provide the highest quality and value in all that we do. Vision To be a model water agency by providing stellar service, achieving measurable results, and continuously improving operational practices. InnovationWe constantly seek better, more efficient, and cost-effective ways to deliver our services. Mission To provide exceptional water and wastewater service to its customers, and to manage District resources in a transparent and fiscally responsible manner. Statement of Values As Otay Water District Employees we dedicate ourselves to: TeamworkWe promote mutual trust by sharing information, knowledge, and ideas to reach our common goals. 17 BALANCE SCORECARD PERSPECTIVES “Alignment of the District’s mission, vision, and plan execution” Employee growth/ Retention Financial results and growth Increase customer satisfaction/Engagement Improve operational efficiency Customer Financial Internal Business Processes Learning & Growth 18 CUSTOMER ➢Enhancement and building of awareness and engagement among the District’s customers and stakeholders and within the San Diego Region of the District’s strategies,policies,projects,programs,and legislative/regulatory issues (3 objectives) ➢Assessment and enhancement of communication tools and increase online presence and social media exposure (1 master objective,12 sub) ➢Answer Rate ➢Technical Water Complaint ➢Potable Water Compliance Rate STRATEGIES | 2 TOTAL OBJECTIVES | 4 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) | 3 Execute and deliver services that meet or exceed customer expectations and increase customer engagement in order to improve District Services. 19 20 FINANCIAL ➢Integration of resource planning and facility optimization (3 objectives) ➢Evaluation of key system alternatives and financial impact (2 objectives) ➢Enhancement of business systems (7 objectives) ➢Enhancement of the Asset Management (AM) and Capital Improvement Programs (CIP) (4 objectives) ➢Development of alternative Public Employees’ Retirement System (PERS) financing strategy to fund ahead of PERS schedule (1 objective) ➢Negotiation and implementation of new labor agreement and optimize employee benefit programs (2 objectives) STRATEGIES | 6 TOTAL OBJECTIVES | 19 Plan and execute sound financial activities that are essential to running and sustaining District operations, with the lowest possible impact to customers. 21 FINANCIAL Plan and execute sound financial activities that are essential to running and sustaining District operations, with the lowest possible impact to customers. ➢CIP Project Expenditures vs. Budget ➢Construction Change Order Incidence ➢O&M Cost per Account ➢Billing Accuracy ➢Overtime Percentage ➢Sewer Rate Ranking ➢Water Rate Ranking ➢Water Debt Coverage Ratio ➢Sewer Debt Coverage Ratio ➢Reserve Levels ➢Account per Full-Time Employee (FTE) ➢Percent of Customers Paying Bills Electronically ➢Distribution System Loss ➢Planned Potable Water Maintenance Ratio in $ ➢Planned Recycled Water Maintenance Ratio in $ ➢Planned Wastewater Maintenance Ratio in $ ➢Direct Cost of Treatment per MGD ➢Leak Detection Program ➢Injury Incident Rate KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) | 19 INTERNAL BUSINESS PROCESSES STRATEGIES | 10 TOTAL OBJECTIVES | 27 ➢Optimization of meter activity operations (3 objectives) ➢Enhancement of customer experience (Customer Service & Communications) (2 objectives) ➢Evaluate and leverage the use of available Human Resources self-service and capital management technology solutions (3 objectives) ➢Maintain a reliable, scalable, secure, and high-performing technology infrastructure to support current and future service needs (4 objectives) ➢Enhancement of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system services via SCADA roadmap project (1 objective) ➢Enhancement of enterprise geographic data (4 objectives) ➢Enhancement of maintenance and program standards (5 objectives) ➢Enhancement of contracting and facility services (3 objectives) ➢Enhancement of the Confined Space Program (1 objective) ➢Optimization of the District’s Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response (HAZWOPER) and Confined Space Emergency Response Team (1 objective) Improve business services by continually improving essential processes, invest in strategic technology, and achieve new efficiencies. 22 23 ➢Enterprise Technology Services Availability ➢Mark-out Accuracy ➢Project Closeout Time ➢Annual Recycled Water Site Inspections ➢Recycled Water Shutdown Testing ➢Easement Evaluation and Field Inspection ➢Recycled Water System Integrity ➢Sewer Overflow Rate ➢System Valve Exercising Program ➢Potable Water Distribution System Integrity ➢Emergency Facility Power Testing ➢Potable Tank Inspection and Cleaning ➢Main Flushing and Hydrant Maintenance ➢Critical Valve Exercising ➢Percent of Preventative Maintenance Completed (Fleet Maintenance) ➢Percent of Preventative Maintenance Completed (Reclamation Plant) ➢Percent of Preventative Maintenance Completed (Pump/Electric) INTERNAL BUSINESS PROCESSES Improve business services by continually improving essential processes, invest in strategic technology, and achieve new efficiencies. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) | 17 24 ➢Enhancement of leadership and employee training programs,and knowledge transfer process.(2 objectives) ➢Employee Voluntary Turnover Rate ➢Training Hours per Employee ➢Safety Training Program STRATEGIES | 1 TOTAL OBJECTIVES | 2 LEARNING AND GROWTH Provide hands-on leadership, support, and empowerment of staff, in order to maintain an accountable high-performing workforce. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) | 3 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM FY 2021-2026 (DAN MARTIN) 25 GROWTH PROJECTIONS1 26 FISCAL YEARS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Single-Family Dwelling Units 175 125 500 550 550 450 Condominium Units 250 225 450 642 760 700 Apartment Units 480 500 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,000 1Source: The Xpera Group’s March 2020 report (all dwelling units reflected above do not have a one-to-one ratio with an EDU and are converted to EDUs for budget purposes) GROWTH PROJECTIONS1 (CONTINUED) 27 FISCAL YEARS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Hotel Rooms 150 175 250 100 Industrial (SF.)700,000 500,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 Amazon (SF)3,400,000 Retail/Office (SF)15,000 / 10,000 20,000 / 10,000 20,000 / 150,000 20,000 / 150,000 90,000 / 10,000 15,000 / 150,000 1Source: The Xpera Group’s March 2020 report - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ED U ' s Fiscal Years Equivalent Dwelling Units (EDU's) -Actual and Projected Actual Projected 2021 Projected 2020 METER SALES AND GROWTH 28 FY 2020 Budgeted –732 EDU’s FY 2020 Forecast –610 EDU’s FY 2021 Projected –333 EDU’s SAN DIEGO COUNTY WATER AUTHORITYCONSTRUCTION COST TREND 29 Source -SDCWA Engineering & Operations Committee Meeting on September 26, 2019; Presentation on As-Needed Contracts for Cost Estimating and Constructability Review Services CONSTRUCTION CLIMATE/MITIGATION The recent economic slowdown is expected to increase the number of bids the District will receive on future projects Other Factors Influencing Construction Climate ➢Shortage of Skilled and Unskilled Labor ➢Regional Competition for Contracting Resources ➢Materials cost escalation due to demand and Federal tariffs Mitigation Strategies ➢Value Engineering ➢Grouping Projects to attract Bidders 30 CIP BUDGET GUIDELINES ➢Growth is expected to slow in FY 2021 ➢New development with multi-family dwellings in greater proportion to single-family dwellings ➢In preparing the budgets for the individual CIP projects, the Engineering Department used recent construction and bidding data to adjust costs for each project ➢Reprioritized projects based on District’s planning documents and to control spending to keep rates stable 31 CIP SIX-YEAR BUDGET LOOK FORWARD ($ MILLIONS) 32 FY 2020 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 Totals $ 17.2 $ 13.3 $ 16.3 $ 14.6 $ 14.7 $ 12.2 Six-Year Total: $88.3 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 Totals $ 8.5 $ 12.6 $ 13.8 $ 16.1 $20.4 $20.9 Six-Year Total: $92.3 FY 2021 $4.9 / 37% Reduction $3.6 / 22% Reduction SIX-YEAR BUDGET DIFFERENCES FY 2020 vs. FY 2021 $ Millions (Negative Value) FY 2020 six-year CIP Budget $ 88.3 New Projects 5.8 Completed Projects (0.5) Deferred Projects (1.6) Ongoing Project Changes Budget Adjustment Budget Expenditures for FY 2020 29.6 (29.3) FY 2021 Six-Year CIP Budget $ 92.3 33 HIGH PROFILE CIP PROJECTS Fiscal Year 2021 ($ Millions) RWCWRF Projects (10 Total) Temporary Lower Otay Pump Station Redundancy Pipeline Replacement Projects (15 Total) 850-1 Reservoir Interior/Exterior Coating Other Coating/Cover/Liner Projects (18 Total) Equipment & Vehicles AMR Changeout $ 1.3 0.5 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Total Expenditure Projection $ 5.7 % of Total FY 2021 Budget 67% 34 HIGH PROFILE CIP PROJECTS Fiscal Year 2021 –2026 CIP ($ Millions) 711-2 PS Replacement Various Waterline Replacements (18 Total) Reservoir Improvements (12 Total) Sewer Basin Improvements $ 16.0 20.1 15.9 5.7 AMR and Meter Replacement 5.5 Total Expenditure Projection % of Total FY 2021 -2026 Budget $ 63.2 68% 35 CIP INFLATION ➢$29.6 million increase in projects primarily due to market conditions: ▪$5.7 million increase in Pure Water ▪$5.4 million increase in Pump Stations ▪$4.25 million increase in Reservoir construction/maintenance costs ▪$3.85 million increase in Bridge projects costs ▪Bidding climate ▪Labor shortages 36 KEY ASSUMPTIONS (KEVIN KOEPPEN) 37 POTABLE WATER VOLUMES 38 Unit Sales (in thousands) 11,576 11,622 10.,229 10,945 11,331 11,699 11,728 11,758 12,227 12,376 11,250 11,399 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 FY 2021 Base Volumes Cumulative Growth Ceiling Floor FY 2020 Projected Volumes RECYCLED WATER VOLUMES 39 Unit Sales (in thousands) 1,463 1,513 1,283 1,386 1,441 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,811 1,836 1,463 1,463 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Based Volume Cumulative Growth Ceiling Floor FY 2020 Projection POTABLE WATER COST PROJECTION CWA ALL-IN TREATED WATER COST PER AF 40 ▪72 (A) CWA provided a projection through 2023. For 2024 to 2026, the CWA high and low forecasts were estimated by Otay staff using a 10.0% inflation factor. Actual Projected(A) 41 COVID-19 IMPACT FY21 Total Operating Revenues/Expenses Potable Water Volume (1,540,000)$ (2,700,000)$ Recycled Water Volume (1,190,000)$ (2,140,000)$ Collections/Bad Debt (380,000)$ (780,000)$ Property Tax (390,000)$ (580,000)$ Penalty Waiver (170,000)$ (170,000)$ Non-operating Revenues/Expenses Capacity Fee Revenue (930,000)$ (2,430,000)$ Total Cashflow Impact (4,600,000)$ (8,800,000)$ Savings Initiatives 5,300,000$ 8,900,000$ 42 PENSION & OPEB STRATEGY ➢OPEB –Fully funded ▪District will reimburse the general fund for retiree medical costs ➢Transfer retiree medical refunds to advance fund PERS ➢Cashflow neutral to the District ➢$5 million savings over 14 years RATE DRIVERS 43 ➢Water ▪COVID-19 impacts ▪Debt coverage for future debt issuances and returning debt coverage to target over 6 years ▪Reserves –Minimums to target over 6 years ➢Sewer ▪COVID-19 Impacts ▪Stable debt coverage for future debt issuances ▪Reserves –Minimums to target over 6 years ▪72 FINANCING PLAN 44 Water ➢No Rate Increase ➢½ Rate Increase ➢Full Rate Increase Sewer ➢Cost of Service Study ➢No Rate Increase ➢½ Rate Increase ➢Full Rate Increase JUNE 3RD PRESENTATION & NEXT STEPS 45 ➢Budget Summary ➢Rate Recommendation ➢Debt Coverage Projection ➢Winter Average Update ➢Labor and Benefit Costs ▪72 Next Steps ➢Step 2–Budget Update ➢Prop 218 Hearing and Notices ➢Admin & Material Costs ➢Salary Schedule ➢Rate Comparison ➢Budget Approval June 3rd Presentation QUESTIONS? 46